Short-term regulation of pressure by the policy or

borseborsa

,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]

recently, under the pressure of soybean in the policy aspect of the sharp adjustment in the inflation pressure and ample liquidity situation in the case of sustained,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], long term perspective,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the structural bull market in soybeans is not over, no transfer potential to show concern.
one being diluted supply factors, demand-led trend

1. U.S. Department of Agriculture report laid the tight supply side

USDA supply and demand report in November reduced again in the 2010/2011 U.S. soybean yield, yield 92.76 million tons from last month forecast down to 91.85 million tons, exports raised to 42.73 million tons, ending stocks are therefore reduced to 5.03 million tons the previous month reports decreased by 30%.
from a global perspective, global soybean supply reduction from the previous 260.11 million tons to 257.36 million tons, global soybean demand of 238.49 million tons from the previous increase to 254.67 million tons. Surplus supply of 21.62 million tons from the previous substantially reduced to 269 tons. Ending stocks, the estimated annual global soybean ending stocks for 2010/2011 was 61.41 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year an increase of 101 million tons, but consumption of inventory compared to 25.3% from the previous year fell to 24.1%.
With the completion of the U.S. soybean harvest, 2010/2011 soybean supply and demand fundamentals change from the loose to the tight balance has been basically determined. With the CBOT soybean prices go to the current 1200 cents, this change has been fully digested, investors could continue to rise in the need for new factors arise.
2. South America have not yet attracted enough attention to dry

from now, most likely to lead to gains in the South American drought. Although the pre-arid South American soybean planting was delayed once, but the recent rains as the emergence of South American soybean planting progress gradually accelerated to catch up with the level of previous years. As of last weekend, Argentina 18.7 million hectares of soybean planted in the completion of 35.8% over the same period last year 2%; Brazil planted area is expected to complete 61%, slightly lower than last year's 62%. Frequent rainfall areas in South America at present, soybean planting to speed up, is expected to complete sowing by the end of November, the market worried about the drought in South America have subsided.
South American soybean market only after March next year, but the weather here is the main factor of post-production. The current La Nila Will the weather affect the post-yield to be further wait, the final yield of soybean in South America there are still large uncertainties. Believe that investors still remember the first quarter of 2009 was due to the drought led to South America, particularly Argentina soybean production in a significant decline, making soybeans the first to bear out of the economic crisis. South American soybean crop to enter the next critical period of growth, weather factors still need to pay close attention.
U.S. soybean production and stocks on the market downward to form a strong support behind the decline in ending stocks is strong demand in China. According to The U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed that consumption of 2010/2011 will reach 68.85 million tons in China, an increase of 16% over last year, China imported 50.34 million tons from last year also raised to 57 million tons.
II calmly macro pressure

It is because of Chinese demand factors play a leading role,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the recent inflation in China, the market is expected to curb demand produced a panic down. However, I believe, in the overall inflationary pressure and ample liquidity situation in the case of sustained, long term perspective, the structural bull market in commodities is not over, although the policy face significant pressure to adjust the commodity markets, but the adjusted price will rise in the late .
from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government's move to see the U.S. economy is picking up though, but still fragile, select the 600 billion the Federal Reserve's policy of quantitative easing is based on the U.S. domestic economy is weak, loose monetary policy beneficial to economic recovery. Therefore, ample liquidity situation has not fundamentally changed. Similarly, in order to maintain steady economic growth, the domestic monetary policy is difficult to change in the short term. Domestic and foreign short-term liquidity situation comfortable difficult to change.
see from the financial side, the recent outflow of funds beans, positions decline, both long and short positions in select high-end, indicating recognition of both sides to adjust, but the overall position remains high, indicating trends not yet over. View from the CFTC fund positions, the fund is still increasing net long positions, the market outlook still holds an optimistic attitude. At present the Fund's net long position over the same period reached its highest level over the years, a huge net long position over the 2007 level.
CBOT soybean fund position net position

administrative measures taken by our government, while also taking a series of market measures to increase market supply. Starting this week, the market put in Heilongjiang will reserve of 246,000 tons of soybean areas, starting price is tentatively scheduled for 3633 yuan / ton, the requirements of the auction business is on the processing capacity of 500 tons or more should be. The current market transaction price of Soybean average 3,840 yuan / ton, while the auction price of 3,633 yuan soybean / ton, far below the market traded price. 246,000 tons of soybean in Heilongjiang Province, only a week to meet the processing capacity. Soybean oil production enterprises in Heilongjiang annual processing capacity of about 900 tons per day for 3 million tons of soybeans, 246,000 tons of soybean only enough local reserves crush a week, so expect little impact on the market. Taking into account the limited number of countries and can not be stored soybeans sold a lot of short-term, so as to meet domestic demand, and only one way to increase imports.
China's General Administration of Customs statistics show China imported a total of 110 months of soybean 43.9 million tons, an increase of 25.8%. Among them, the October soybean imports 3.73 million tons, 4.64 million tons higher than in September decreased by 19.6% qoq, but an increase of 48%. According to schedules speculated, is expected in November soybean imports will reach 350 million tons in December and January next year, imports more than 400 million tons. This shows that Chinese imports will not decline with the emergence of macro-control, the market still remain the main driver of the late call.
monthly import volume in China grew soybeans

III,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], conclusions and operational recommendations

soybean supply fundamentals have not changed significantly, the supply tightness is still the main tone. Chinese demand factors are the main driver of the market bullish. Short-term market pressure regulation by the state policy to continue to maintain the adjustment may be more vulnerable, soybean late 4300 to pay attention to the bottom line performance support. Operation, suggest that investors control the position, short-term wet storage operation, market stability and then consider buying the dips.